股票期货突破技术分析(英文原版)-第13部分

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How　to　Read　Candlesticks　

Candlesticks。express。stock。price　movements。over　a　set　period　of　time　（ordinarily　either　one　day　or　one　week）。　Each　stick。will　have　a　different　shape　and　color　（black。equals。a　downtrend；　white　equals。an　uptrend）；　and　each　means　something　different。　For　example；　if　there　is。a　long　white　box；　one　might　surmise　that　the　same　price　trend　will　continue　and　prices。will　rise　even　higher　the　next　day。　

If　a　stock。experiences。selling　after　it　opens；　later　rises。higher；　but　closes。the　day　at　the　same　price　as。the　opening　price　（the　very　first　price　of　the　day）；　one　might　conclude　that　the　market　is。having　difficulty　deciding　on　a　direction。　
In　other　words；　each　candlestick。has。a　meaning　and　tells。a　story。　There　are　twelve　basic。types。of　candlesticks。（see　Figure　4。5）。　Let's　look。closer　at　their　meanings。and　what　their　binations　have　to　say　about　market　direction。　
The　twelve　types。of　candlesticks。break。down　into　three　basic。categories。　
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While　candlesticks。　The　closing　price　was。higher　than　the　opening　price　（Nos。　1…4　in　Figure　4。5）。　

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Black。candlesticks。　The　opening　price　was。higher　than　the　closing　price　（Nos。　5…8　in　Figure　4。5）。　

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Doji。　The　opening　price　and　the　closing　price　were　the　same；　forming　a　crossbar　figure　（Nos。　9…12　in　Figure　4。5）。　


Within　these　categories；　there　are　many　different　shapes。　For　example；　a　large　white　box　with　no　shadows；　called　a　marubozu　（shaved）　candlestick。（No。　1　in　Figure　4。5）；　indicates　that　the　closing　price　was。far　higher　than　the　opening　price。　
Candlesticks。also　can　differ　in　the　length　of　their　shadows；　whether　they　have　shadows。or　not；　and　in　the　size　of　the　real　body　itself。　Each　candlestick。offers。a　hint　about　what　is。likely　to　happen　next。　

Ordinarily；　a　while　candlestick。indicates。that　prices。may　be　higher　the　next　day　and　is　therefore　bullish；　whereas。a　black。candlestick。is。bearish　and　indicates。that　prices。may　fall　（see　Figure　4。6）。　Other　shapes。indicate　reversal　points。　Examples。include　doji　and　spinning　tops；　that　is；　very　narrow　real　bodies；　indicating　a　narrow　range　between　the　opening　and　closing　prices。（see　Figure　4。7）。　However；　you　have　to　be　careful。　Candlestick。meanings。are　contextual。　The　meanings。of　candlestick。shapes。differ　depending　on　whether　they　appear　near　the　top　of　the　range　or　the　bottom。　Meanings。will　also　differ　if　several　candlesticks。are　clustered　together。　In　other　words；　a　specific。group　of　candlesticks。can　indicate　either　an　extremely　bullish　market　or　an　extremely　bearish　one。　


Reversal　Patterns　
It　is。possible　to　use　candlestick。analysis。to　discover　market　turning　points—the　tops。and　the　bottoms。　One　approach　is。to　look。for　distinctive；　easily　seen　patterns。that　mark。a　top　or　bottom。　The　other　is。to　examine　whether　tops。and　bottoms。have　predictable　patterns。　In　practice；　its。difficult　to　make　judgments。from　a　single　pattern。　A　single*　pattern　may　have*　two；　opposite；　meanings；　depending　on　whether　it　es。after　the　market　has。made　a　substantial　rise　or　a　substantial　fall　（in　fact；　the　meaning　is。the　same　in　that　the　pattern　indicates。a　market　reversal；　but　it　means。the　opposite　in　the　sense　of　going　up　or　going　down）。　The　key；　therefore；　is。to　examine　not　only　the　shape　but　also　the　timing　of　the　pattern。　
Takuri　and　Hanging。Man。Shapes　
Takuri　and　hanging　man　shapes；　with　a　small　real　body　（the　rectangular　portion）　and　an　extremely　long　lower　shadow；　are　often　seen　at　the　bottom　of　the　market。　Some　examples。are　found　in　Figure　4。8。　They　can　be　quickly　spotted　in　real　charts。　The　point　to　watch　is。the　lower　shadow。　The　relative　size　of　the　real　body　is。not　that　important；　nor　is。the　color—white　or　black—or　the　presence　of　a　short　upper　shadow。　As。long　as。the　lower　shadow　is。noticeably　long；　it　fits。the　pattern。　Takuri。　Strictly　speaking；　takuri　refers。to　a　black。candlestick。that　opens　low　and　has。a　long　lower　shadow　and　a　small　real　body；　but　it　can　also　be　a　white　candlestick。and　can　have　a　bit　of　an　upper　shadow　or　a　large　real　body；　as　long　as。the　lower　shadow　is。substantially　longer　than　the　real　body。　Takuri　also　covers。doji　shapes。like　the　dragonfly。and　the　hammer；　in　which　the　open　and　close　are　the　same；　as　long　as。the　lower　shadow　is。of　sufficient　length。　Takuri　shapes。are　usually　seen　after　the　market　has。experienced　a　substantial　drop；　and　they　represent　an　opportune　buying　signal；　especially　if　they　are　acpanied　by　high　volume　（see　Figure　4。9）。　
A　white　takuri　acpanied　by　volume　（far　greater　trading　volume　than　the　previous　day's）　very　likely　marks。a　bottom。　The　reason　for　that　is。quite　simple。　Consider　the　psychology　of　investors。when　a　takuri　is。formed。　If　the　market　has。been　in　a　prolonged　decline；　investors。begin　to　wonder　why　it　hasn't　stopped　and　when　it　eventually　will。　The　psychology　flips。back。and　forth　between　〃Hurry　up　and　stop　already！”　and　〃Could　the　market　go　down　any　farther？〃　

In　a　situation　like　this；　if　the　market　opens。with　more　selling　than　usual；　it　means。that　investors。have　bee　desperate　and　think。that　the　stock。will　drop　oven　farther。　More　people　decide　to　dump　their　shares　（cut　their　losses。and　run）；　so　the　price　declines。　Other　investors。see　this。and　jump　aboard　the　selling　bandwagon。　Once　the　desperation　selling　and　dumping　are　over；　however；　few　shares　are　left　for　sale；　and　even　a　small　amount　of　buying　will　push　the　price　back。up。　By　the　end　of　the　session；　the　closing　price　is。at　or　very。near　the　open。　In　other　words；　a　takuri　means。that　all　the　sellers。have　sold　and　there　is。no　more　selling　to　e。　The　bears。have　seen　their　supply　lines。cut；　which　makes。the　bulls。stronger；　and　that　is。why　this。shape　often　means。that　the　market　has。bottomed　out　
Hanging。Man。　The　hanging　man　has。the　same　shape　as。an　ordinary　takuri；　but　it's。a　white　candlestick。that　occurs。at　the　top　and　is。often　the　precursor　of　a　steep　decline　（see　Figure　4。10）。　The　name　es。from　the　market　wisdom　that　you'll　end　up　hanging　yourself　if　you　buy　on　this。shape。　Here　too；　it　does。not　really　matter　whether　the　shape's。real　body　is。black。or　white　or　whether　it's。a　doji　or　still　a　takuri。　
The　hanging　man　does。not　appear　often　and　so　should　be　watched　carefully　when　it　does。　You're　far　less。likely　to　see　a　hanging　man　appear　at　the　top　than　you　are　a　takuri　at　the　bottom　or　an　inverted　takuri　at　the　peak。　Nor　does。the　hanging　man　generally　appear　by　itself。　
Once　again；　investor　psychology　explains。why　this。shape　indicates。a　peak。　Unlike　the　takuri；　in　this。case　the　shape　would　appear　at　first　glance　to　be　bullish。　The　bears。have　been　in　charge　and　pushed　the　price　down；　but　the　bulls。were　able　to　push　it　back。up　during　the　day；　and　they　appear　to　be　quite　strong。　But　if　the　bulls。were　really。that　strong；　they　would　have　taken　the　sharp　drop　at　the　open；　pushed　back。up；　and　kept　going　quite　a　bit　farther。　It's。a　question　of　〃Is。that　all　you　can　do？”　If　that　is。as。far　as。the　bulls。can　go；　then　they　are　weak。and　about　to　be　hung。　

Shooting。Star　and。Gravestone　Shapes　
Like　the　long　lower　shadow　shapes；　there　are　also　shapes　with　long　upper　shadows；　which　are　illustrated　in　Figure　4。11。　And　like　those　with　long　lower　shadows；　long　upper　shadow　shapes。indicate　a　top　when　they　appear　in　a　rising　market　and　a　bottom　when　they。appear　in　a　falling　market。　Similarly；　it's。not　that　important　whether　the　real　body　is。white　or　black；　or　whether　the　shape　is。a　doji；　or　whether　there　is。a　slight　lower　shadow。　A　long　upper　shadow　isnsidered　either　a　shooting　star　or　a　gravestone。　
Shooting。Star。　When　a　shape　with　a　small　teal　body　（expressing　the　spread　between　the　open　and　close）　and　a　long　upper　shadow　appears　after　a　significant　rise；　it's。called　a　shooting　star　and　indicates。a　top。　In　other　words；　until　the　previous。session；　the　rising　trend　was。moving　along　nicely　and　prices。were　being　bid　up；　but　the　bulls'　supply　lines。have　now　collapsed。　Traders。looking　to　buy　have　bought　pretty　much　all　they　want　and　there　are　no　more　buyers。left；　so　the　market　has。peaked。　
Gravestone。　Strictly　speaking；　a　gravestone　（Figure　4。12）　is。a　doji　with　a　long　upper　shadow；　and　when　it　appears。near　a　bottom　or　after　a　sharp　decline；　it　usually　indicates。that　the　market　has　bottomed　out。　As。with　the　shooting　star；　the　gravestone　can　be　interpreted　more　loosely　to　be　any　shape　with　a　long　upper　shadow　that　appears。near　a　bottom。　
The　gravestone　is。interpreted　the　same　way　as。a　hanging　man　is。near　the　top。　
The　boars。have　sold　the　stork。back。down　but　have　been　unable　to　break。very　far　through　the　low；　which　indicates　that　a　bottom　has。been　reached。　

The　Logic　Behind。the　Shooting。Star　and。Gravestone　
In　contrast　to　takuri　and　hanging　man；　these　patterns　have　long　upper　shadows。and　small　or　no　real　bodies　（doji）。　If　the　real　body　is　small；　it　is。a　shooting　star　because　the　long　upper　shadow　looks。like　a　et's。tail；　if　it’s。a　doji；　the　shape　is。called　a　gravestone　because　the　long　upper　shadow　looks。like　a　gravestone　extending　upward　from　the　ground。　Both　indicate　reversal　points。　Generally；　a　shooting　star　near　the　top　indicates。that　the　price　has。peaked；　while　a　gravestone　near　the　bottom　indicates。that　it　has。bottomed　out。　However；　in　practice；　the　distinction　is。not　that　important。　What　is。important　is。the　price　mov