股票期货突破技术分析(英文原版)-第12部分

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ever　that　on　June　12　the　cloud　pushed　this。black。line　decidedly。higher；　acting　as。support　for　prices。on　July　17。　Also　look。at　August　7；　where　the　twenty…six…day　average　pushes。the　Lagging　Span　up　again。　At　the　time　of　writing　（mid…September　2006）；　the　Lagging　Span　is。under　the　candles。of　twenty…six　days　ago；　suggesting　we　may。snake　slowly　sideways　under　these　for　another　two　weeks。　
The　outlook；　according　to　this。chart：　Generally　we　expect　the　cable　to　move　very　slowly。higher　over　the　next　month；　possibly　more　quickly　if　the　averages。turn　clearly　bullish。　
Support　levels：　
1。8770　（top　of　the　cloud　but　note　this。moves。higher　until　mid…October）　
1。8660　（twenty…six…day。average　twenty…six　days。ago　for　the　Lagging　Span）　
1。8600　（the　bottom　of　the　cloud）　
Figure　3。7　charts。the　S&P　500。　Since　March　2003；　the　trend　has。been　decidedly。bullish；　with　lengthy　periods。of　consolidation　along　the　way。　A　moving　average　crossover　trading　strategy　would　have　kept　you　invested　most　of　the　time；　except　for　a　fairly　long　spell　from　June　to　October　2004。　The　averages。also　switched　briefly　to　a　short　position　between　April　and　July　2005　and　in　June　2006。　

The　clouds。have　worked　admirably；　the　index　clinging　to　the　top　edge　of　these　on　most　pullbacks。　Since　February　2005　the　cloud　has。been　a　lot　thinner　than　in　previous。years；　but　even　so　has。provided　support。　Note　that　the　Leading　Spans。have　never　crossed　over。　
The　Lagging　Span　has。held　above　the　twenty…six…week　moving　average　throughout；　bouncing　strongly　from　it　in　February　2004；　April　2005；　and　January　2006。　
Looking　ahead　to　September　2006；　the　nine…week。average　crossed　over　the　twenty…six…week。one；　so　perhaps。the　S&F。500　will　start　to　climb　higher　again；　helped　along　by　the　top　of　the　cloud　which　is。also　rising　slightly。　However；　prices。might　initially　drop　to　or　into　the　cloud；　meaning　that　the　averages。will　turn　down　again。　The　reality　is。that　these　two　might　whip　around　each　other　for　quite　some　time；　which　suggests。that　the　moving　average　crossover　system　should　go　on　the　back。burner　for　now。　The　Lagging　Span　is。just　above　the　top　of　the　candles。themselves；　and　so　may　provide　support　for　current　prices。　To　conclude；　there　will　be　very　gently　rising　prices；　but　watch　out　in　January　2007　as。the　cloud　bees　thin。　
pared　to　most　so…called　trending　systems；　Ichimoku　Kinko　Hyo　can　work。very　well　in　a　congestion　zone　（with　minor　adaptations）。　As。Figure　3。8　shows；　the　/Yen　has。been　in　a　bull　market。　In　September　2006；　it　started　moving　sideways。　The　upper　edge　of　the　cloud　is。the　first　support　（after　the　nine…day　and　twenty…six…day　averages）；　and　the　lower　edge　of　the　cloud　is。the　key　support。　Leading　Span　1　（the　upper　edge　of　the　cloud）　will　hold　dips　most；　but　not　all；　of　the　time。　Prices。will　dip　into　the　shaded　area　and　then　rally　ahead　of　Leading　Span　2。　The　market　will　often　then　creep　erratically　within　the　cloud；　moving　slowly。between　its。two　edges。　I　included　this。fairly　recent　chart　here　so　you　can　judge　the　usefulness。of　these　techniques。for　yourself。　Had　I　included　only　historical　charts；　I　would　have　given　the　impression　that　the　system　always。works；　I　hope　you　will　discover　how　well　the　system　works。as。events。unfold。　

Taking　a　larger　perspective　on　the　markets；　I've　found　that　while　it　may　be　useful　to　have　some　sort　of　road　map　and　some　idea　of　how　far　along　you　have　e；　it's。smart　to　be　flexible。　Do　not　get　obsessed　with　terrorist　threats；　economic。slowdown；　and　house…price　bubbles。　Look。also　at　information　and　chart　patterns。that　contradict　your　view；　not　just　the　ones。that　support　it。　Also　try　to　find　as。many　parts。of　the　puzzle　that　fit　together　as　you　can；　but　think。more　carefully　about　the　ones。that　do　not。　Look。at　similar　and　related　instruments。to　see　if　the　movesnfirm　each　other。　So　if　the　cable　looks。as　though　it　is　going　up；　then　/Yen　should　be　on　its。way　down。　If　copper　is。at　a　record　high；　then　other　base　metals。should　be　on　the　expensive　side。　Do　not　try　to　force　a　piece　of　the　puzzle　in；　but　try　to　look。at　it　from　a　different　perspective。　Being　a　bit　of　a　contrarian　myself；　I　enjoy　questioning　conventional　wisdom　and　often　trade　against　prevailing　views。　This。often　works。well；　as。too　much　has　been　priced　into　the　market　way　ahead　of　the　expected　date。　
I　will　conclude　with　some　advice。　
Charts。are　all　about　reading　psychology　and　smelling　raw　emotion。　Do　not　forget　this。　
Do　not　think。that　you　can　move　into　or　out　of　any　financial　instrument　with…out　causing　ripples。（or　tidal　waves。at　times）。　Everything　you　think；　do；　and　feel　makes。the　market。　Alter　all；　any　market　is。the　sum　total　of　our　actions；　hopes；　and　fears。　
Some　markets；　like　foreign　exchange；　are　huge。　Changing　money　for　your　holiday　will　have　practically　zero　effect。　But　consider　that　there　are　hundreds　of　thousands　of　these　small　transactions。going　on　every　day　and　the　cumulative　amounts。do　matter。　In　tiny。markets—tightly　owned　shares。in　a　small　pany；　for　example—the　impact　is。far　greater　and　more　immediate。　Say　private　equity　pany　X　has。decided　to　amass。a　significant　stake　in　Y　at　fifty　pence—the　chart　will　have　a　horizontal　at　50　because　the　bid　is。there。　And　if　the　bid　is。upped　to　sixty　pence；　the　lows。will　immediately　be　limited　at　this。point。　
Look。at　charts；　imagine　what　people　are　thinking。　Remember：　They　are　voting　with　their　pockets。　
The　name　technical　analysis。sounds。very　scientific。and　rational。　It　isn't。　Nor　are　the　markets。we　endeavor　to　follow。　Like　classic。cars。and　golf　club　memberships；　there　is。a　lot　more　to　the　value　at　which　these　change　hands。than　purely　financial　considerations。　
The　more　confident　you　grow　with　any　new　technique；　the　more　likely　you　are　to　tinker　with　it。　Confidence　begets。creativity。　Think　of　Renaissance　painters。and　Greek　philosophers。　When　working　within　very　tight　constraints；　the　truly　gifted　can　and　will　e　up　with　something　stunning　and　original。　My。Japanese　colleagues。astonishingly。use　hourly。candles；　particularly　with　things。like　/Yen　and　the　Nikkei　225。　Try　these　and　see　what　you　think。　I　have　had　fifty…fifty　results。with　this。so　far；　not　nearly　close　to　my　usual　standards。　Often　it　can　be　worth　sticking　with　the　crowd。　
When　dealing　with　financial　markets；　self…knowledge　and　a　sense　of　perspective　are　the　most　difficult　things。to　master；　as。is。knowing　when　to　pounce　and　when　to　stand　back　and　be　patient。　With　technical　analysis；　you'll　e　to　distinguish　between　unnecessary。〃noise〃　and　indications　the　market　is。about　to　move。　
As。you　can　see；　this。chapter　is。a　mix　of　new　（to　us　Westerners）　technical　analysis。and　down…home　advice。　Which　is。the　most　important？　The　basics；　of　course。　But　I　have　added　Ichimoku　Kinko　Hyo　to　my　armory；　and　I　hope　you　will　too。　

CHAPTER。4　

Reading　Candlestick　Charts　
YOSUKh　SHIMIZU　
T　
here　are　many　different　kinds。of　stock。charts。in　use；　but　candlesticks。are　probably　the　most　mon　form　in　Japan。　The　name　candlestickses　from　the　practice　of　representing　price　movements。with　white　and　black。sticks。that　look　like　candles；　particularly。the　form　with　a　white　box　on　the　bottom　and　a　thin　line　extending　upward。　
This　style　of　charting　isnsidered　to　have　its。roots　in　the　Edo…period　rice　markets。of　Dojima　（near　modern…day　Osaka）。　Historians。estimate　that　they　took。their　present　form　in　the　latter　half　of　the　Meiji　period　（late　1800s）。　Originally；　they　were　just　sticks。drawn　in　red　or　black。　

What　Are　Candlesticks？　
Let’s。start　by　looking　at　how　candlesticks。are　drawn。　Figure　4。1　is。a　list　of　fictitious　intraday　stock。price　movements。　

If　prices。move　in　order　from　1　to　30；　they　produce　a　line　graph　like　the　one　marked　No。　1　in　Figure　4。2；　which　we　can　express。as。a　candlestick；　as。shown　by　No。　2。　
If　the　movement　were　like　the　chart　in　Figure　4。3；　the　candlestick　would　be　colored　black。　A　black。candlestick。indicates。that　the　opening　price　was。higher　than　the　closing　price。　In　other　words；　prices。spent　the　day　more　or　less。sliding　downward。　This。is。called　a　black　candlestick。　The　same　charting　technique　can　be　applied　to　yearly　price　movements　as。well。　
The　difference　between　a　white　candlestick。and　a　black。candlestick。is。whether　the　opening　price　（the　first　price　of　the　session）　was。higher　than　the　closing　price　（the　last　price　of　the　session）。　As　Figure　4。4　shows；　if　the　closing　price　is。lower　than　the　opening　price；　a　black。candlestick　is。used；　if　it　is。higher；　a　white　candlestick。　The　lines。extending　out　from　the　black。or　white　bodies。are　called　shadows。and　represent　the　price　extremes。（highest　and　lowest　prices）　during　the　day。　
In　a　daily　chart；　a　single　black。or　white　candle　expresses。price　movements。for　a　single　day；　in　a　weekly　chart；　a　single　candle　expresses。price　movements　for　an　entire　week；　in　a　monthly　chart；　for　an　entire　month。　Chart*　can　be　drawn　in　almost　any　increment。　Some　traders。even　use　one…minute　and　live…minute　charts。　
Regardless。of　the　time　frame；　the　form　of　the　candlestick。and　itsbination　with　other　candlesticks。can　be　used　to　identify　the　market's。direction　and　its。relative　strength　or　weakness。　That　is。the　main　purpose　of　candlestick。charts。　


How　to　Read　Candlesticks　

Candlesticks。express。stock。price　movements。over　a　set　period　of　time　（ordinarily　either　one　day　or　o