股票期货突破技术分析(英文原版)-第8部分

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ell　countdown　qualifications。　Sell　setup　day　seven　does　not　qualify　because　its。close　is。lower　than　the　prior　price　bar's。close。　Sell　setup　price　bars。eight　and　nine　do　meet　the　requirements　of　sell　countdown。　At　the　time　of　pletion　of　sell　setup；　there　are　already　five　sell　countdown　days。　For　the　sake　of　parison；　note　that　TD　Sequential　would　only　now　begin　itsuntdown　process；　but　at　the　same　time；　the　countdown　requirements。for　TD　Sequential　are　less。restrictive—in　fact；　TD　bo　has。four　times。the　number　of　rules。that　TD　Sequential　has。　Moving　the　process。forward；　two　days。after　the　sell　setup　ispleted；　the　sell　countdown　series。increases。to　six；　and　the　next　four　trading　days。do　not　meet　all　the　requirements。　January　13　and　14　do　meet　the　requirements；　and　the　countdown　proceeds　to　seven　and　eight。　After　a　five…trading…day　interruption；　the　countdown　quickly　records。five　consecutive　trading　days。that　meet　all　the　countdown　rules；　and　on　countdown　day　thirteen　the　rally　high　is。recorded　and　price　declines。　

Price　Exhaustion。and　Reversal　
TD　bo　is。designed　to　anticipate　areas。of　price　exhaustion。　It　is。the　exception　rather　than　the　rule　that　TD　bo　countdown　day　thirteen　will　coincide　with　the　precise　price　exhaustion　peak。or　trough　price　bar；　but　often　it　will　occur　within　a　couple　of　price　bars。of　peak。or　trough；　and　it　will　alert　a　trader　to　a　market's。vulnerability　to　a　price　reversal。　Once　countdown　pletion　has。been　recorded；　at　a　minimum；　one　can　expect　price　to　undergo　a　trading　range　before　it　is。able　to　resume　its。trend。　However；　if　there　is。no　meaningful　price　response　after　twelve　price　bars。have　lapsed；　the　likelihood　of　a　price　reversal　upon　TD　bo　countdown　pletion　diminishes。　Consequently；　in　these　instances；　often　the　market　is。undergoing　an　interruption　in　the　prevailing　trend。　In　either　case；　TD　bo　inserts。a　level　of　discipline　into　a　trader's。methodology。　As。is。evident　in　Figure　2。3；　the　peak。price　day　and　volatile　trading　day　of　the　entire　sell　setup　and　countdown　period　coincided　with　pletion　of　sell　countdown　and　the　expectation　of　price　exhaustion　and　a　price　decline。　Very　optimistic。news。regarding　precious。metals。was。more　than　likely　associated　with　this。trading；　and　that　information　served　to　entice　traders。into　the　market　and　exhaust　the　near…term　upside。　

The　subsequent　market　decline　did　culminate　in　the　formation　of　a　buy　setup　and；　as　you　can　see　in　Figure　2。5；　because　price　perfection　was。fulfilled　on　February　15；　the　same　day　as。the　pletion　of　the　buy　setup；　there　was。a　reflex　rally　of　four　trading　days。　Then　the　decline　resumed　as。did　the　countdown　process。　As。is。often　the　case；　the　countdown　series。did　not　quite　reach　thirteen　pletions；　rather　only　ten　price　bars　fulfilled　the　countdown　criteria。　Once　the　March　low　was。made；　price　rallied　and　the　TD　bo　sell　setup　seriesmenced；　reaching　the　minimum　requirement　for　pletion。　The　countdown　process。was。then　activated；　making　parisons。starting　with　the　first　day　of　sell　setup　on　March　24　（see　Figure　2。6）。　Days。one　and　two　of　sell　setup　were　countdown　days。one　and　two；　as。well；　because　their　respective　closes。were　higher　than　both　the　highs。two　days。earlier　and　each　prior　day's。close。　Additionally；　each　day's。high　was。above　the　previous。day's。high；　and　each　close　was。above　the　previousuntdown　day's。close。　Just　as。the　prior　sell　countdown　series。recorded　its。thirteenth　pletion　on　its。high　day　of　January。31；　so　too　this。time；　on　May　11；　the　upside　stopped　precisely　on　the　peak。price　day。　However；　note　that　the　dose　of　countdown　price　bar　thirteen　was。neither　above　the　high　two　price　bars。earlier；　a　higher　close　than　the　prior　day's。dose；　nor　above　the　prior　countdown　close。　Why　did　a　thirteen　appear　above　this。price　bar？　Because　TD　bo　countdown　has　an　alternative　for　the　thirteenth　price　bar；　which　is。referred　to　as　the　termination　count。　Specifically；　countdown　thirteen　can　be　recorded　with　the　closing　price　relationships。as。are　the　other　price　bars。from　countdowns。one　through　twelve；　but　an　alternative　option　exists。for　the　open　to　serve　as。a　proxy　for　the　closing　price。　As　you　can　see；　by　replacing　the　closing　with　the　opening　of　the　price　bar；　the　countdown　series。meets。the　requirement　for　pletion　thirteen。　

Once　the　peak。is。recorded；　price　declines。and　records。the　minimum　requirement　for　a　buy　setup—nine　consecutive　closes　lower　than　the　close　four　days。earlier。　The　subsequent　buy　setup　series。was。unusually　steep　（see　Figure　2。3）。　As。a　result；　a　high　number　of　price　bars。met　the　requirements。for　buy　countdown。　Buy　setup　days。one　through　seven　were　TD　bo　countdown　price　bars。as。well。　Each　requirement　is。identical　to　those　applied　to　TD　bo　sell　countdown　but　in　reverse。　In　other　words；　the　close　of　each　was。lower　than　the　low　seen　two　price　bars。earlier　and　also　lower　than　the　prior　price　bars。close；　and　each　countdown　close　was。successively　lower　than　the　previousuntdown　day's。close。　Finally；　each　low　was。lower　than　the　prior　price　bars。low。　Thisparison　was。applied　to　the　subsequent　countdown　series；　but　notice　that　after　countdown　ten　was。recorded　and　specifically　countdowns。eleven　and　twelve；　the　previous。rules。were　not　adhered　to。　TD　bo　version　No。　2　is。more　liberal　than　version　No。　1　and　allows。for　the　rules　of　countdown　price　bars。eleven；　twelve；　and　thirteen　to　be　more　liberally。qualified。　Specifically；　the　closes。of　countdowns。eleven；　twelve；　and　thirteen　must　be　successively　lower　than　one　another　to　fulfill　pletion。　Once　again；　but　in　reverse；　see　that　price　exhaustion　thirteen　was。successful　in　identifying　when　a　trend　is。about　to　exhaust　itself　and　result　in　a　price　reversal。　
In　the　previous。examples；　TD　bo　thirteen　sell　and　buy　countdown　pletions　coincided　exactly　with　each　trend's。price　exhaustion。　Obviously；　this。is。not　what　one　should　expect。　The　accuracy　of　TD　bo　is。just　not　this。high；　and　to　believe　that　this。methodology　will　produce　such　precision　in　other　instances。is。a　presumptuous。and　serious。mistake　because　you　will　be　sorely　disappointed。　Consider　such　events。to　be　exceptions。to　the　ride　and　yourself　fortunate　just　to　have　TD　bo　successfully　identify　price　zones。where　price　might　exhaust　itself。　
Just　as。the　buy　setup　in　February　did；　the　sell　setup　in　May；　the　buy　setup　in　June；　and　the　sell　setup　in　August　all　identified　likely　short…term　price　reversals。　All　setups。were　“perfected”；　that　is；　the　buy　setups　were　acpanied　by　a　low　for　price　bar　eight　or　price　bar　nine　that　was。lower　than　the　price　lows。for　bars。six　and　seven；　and　the　sell　setups。were　acpanied　by　a　high　for　price　bar　eight　or　price　bar　nine　that　was。higher　than　the　highs　for　price　bars。six　and　seven。　Although　in　each　instance　the　price　reversals。were　short　term　and　the　buy　setup　lows。and　the　sell　setup　highs。subsequently　were　exceeded；　the　trading　opportunities　existed。　We　do　not　remend　concentrating　on　setups；　because　the　countdown　pletions。are　more　likely　to　coincide　with　more　significant　price　exhaustions　and　turning　points。　But　price　setups。do　provide　context　for　trend　followers；　who　can　use　them　to　add　to　positions。subsequent　to　these　reactions；　or　for　traders。who　want　to　operate　against　the　prevailing　trends。　

Aggressive　Settings　for　TD　bo　and　TD　Sequential　
Figure　2。3　demonstrates。how　effective　price…exhaustion　techniques。can　be　in　identifying　market　tops　and　bottoms。　The　bane　of　trend　followers。has。always。been　lack。of　liquidity；　price　gaps；　and　slippage。　By　anticipating　price…exhaustion　zones；　one　is。both　prepared　and　able　to　sell　into　market　strength　and　buy　into　market　weakness；　which　provides。a　trader　a　distinct　timing　advantage。　It　is。difficult　psychologically。to　act　against　the　prevailing　trend；　but　at　the　same　time　it　is。more　rewarding　because　there　is。no　lack。of　supply。when　the　market　is。declining；　just　as。there　is。no　shortage　of　demand　when　the　market　is　advancing。　Although　TD　Sequential　and　TD　bo　are　capable　of　identifying　areas。of　likely。price…trend　exhaustion；　when　they　are　silent　and　give　no　indication　of　likely　price　reversal；　it　behooves。a　trader　to　apply　the　aggressive　versions。of　both　to　gain　an　enhanced　trading　edge；　because　their　more　liberal　requirements。make　them　more　sensitive。　
Both　TD　Aggressive　Sequential。　and　TD　Aggressive　bo。　possess。the　same　core　parameters。as。their　respective　parents；　TD　Sequential　and　TD　bo。　However；　their　countdown　requirements。are　less。restrictive　and　consequently　identify　price…exhaustion　opportunities　more　frequently。　Specifically；　instead　of　relying　on　TD　Sequential’s。strict　parison　of　a　close　versus。the　high　two　price　bars。earlier　to　identify　upside　price　exhaustion　and；　conversely；　a　close　versus。the　low　two　price　bars。earlier　to　identify。downside　price　exhaustion；　the　aggressive　version　merely　pares。highs。to　identity　a　likely　top　and　lows。to　do　likewise　at　a　prospective　bottom。　Figure　2。7　shows。the　Philadelphia　Gold　and　Silver　Index　（XAU）　from　August　1；　2005；　through　May　30；　2006；　and　illustrates。the　advantage　of　applying　TD　Aggressive　Sequential　vis…a…vis。standard　TD　Sequential—the　frequency　of　price…exhaustion　occurrences　increases　as。do　potential　trading　opportunities　at　extreme　price　tops　and　bottoms。　

Although　the　setup　series。are　identical　for　both　TD。Sequential　and　TD　Aggressive