股票期货突破技术分析(英文原版)-第4部分

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t。　
What　is。so　special　about　this。particular　moving　average；　the　PLdot；　that　sets。it　apart　from　other　moving　averages？　The　characteristics。of　the　dot　prove　to　be　useful　in　analysis。　It　moves。across。the　chart　horizontally　in　congestion；　and　when　a　trend　develops；　it　immediately　changes。into　a　straight　line　slanted　in　the　direction　of　the　trend　with　very　little　lag。　It　is。extraordinarily。sensitive　to　trending　markets；　very　quick。to　register　the　change　of　a　market　out　of　congestion　into　trend　and　sensitive　to　a　trend　that　is。ending；　as。well。　
The　PLdot　captures。the　heart　of　market　activity　on　the　last　three　bars。　In　Drummond　Geometry；　this。point　would　be　thought　of　as。the　center　of　energy　and　represents。the　consensus。of　the　crowd。　But　additional　tools。are　needed　to　gauge　the　strength　of　moves　away　from　thisnsensus。　For　this；　other　moving　averages。are　added。　To　give　the　methodology　greater　muscle。　Drummond　added　a　simple　envelope　system　constructed　of　a　constant　mathematical　relationship　based　on　the　ponents。of　the　dot。　The　resulting　structure　is。illustrated　in　Figure　1。2。　

Unlike　many　envelope　systems；　the　objective　here　is　not　to　contain　all　price　activity　within　the　envelope　but　to　offer　a　constant；　or　a　matrix；　against　which　market　moves。can　be　measured。　This。turns。out　to　be　of　great　value　when　trying　to　tailor　trading　techniques。to　different　market　conditions。　
The　envelope　system　is。also　useful　as　a　constant　against　which　to　measure　the　strength　of　recent　and　current　market　energy。　When　the　market　is。in　congestion；　price　tends　to　oscillate　from　one　side　of　the　envelope　to　another；　thus；　the　trader　has。a　pretty　good　idea　of　where　the　buying　and1　selling　/ones。will　be　placed　in　the　market。　But　when　the　market　is。in　a　strong　trend；　the　envelope　functions。differently。　The　PLdot　can　be　seen　as。〃pushing〃　price　in　a　trend；　and　the　envelope　top　or　bottom　will　be　broken　in　the　direction　of　the　trend；　with　price　bats。often　closing　outside　the　envelope；　and　the　envelope　itself　functioning　as。support　or　resistance。　Price　retracements。in　a　trend　will　not　move　to　the　opposite　side　of　the　envelope　but　instead　lend　to　stop　at　the　level　of　the　PLdot。　In　a　strong　trend；　the　bars。will　close　outside　of　the　envelope　until　the　trend　pauses。or　has。finished；　at　which　point　they　will　move　back　inside　the　envelope。　
Both　the　PLdot　and　the　envelope　are　useful　elements　in　determining　support　and　resistance　levels；　but　by　themselves。they　are　not　sufficient。　To　these　elements；　Drummond　analysis。adds。a　series。of　short…term；　two…bar　trend　lines。that　flag　areas。where　price　is。likely。to　terminate。　In　the　full　methodology；　there　are　a　significant　number　of　these　lines；　here　just　a　few　are　shown。　

In　Figure　1。3；　we　can　see　how　these　short…term　trend　linesntribute　to　the　definition　of　nearby　support　and　resistance　arras。（shown　by　a　gray　box）　and　the　further　out　support　and　resistance　areas。（shown　by　a　black…outlined　box）。　Note　also　that　these　lines；　along　with　the　PLdot　and　the　envelope；　are　projected　into　the　near…term　future；　so　that　the　trader　always。knows　where　the　support　and　resistance　areas　are　that　the　market　is。moving　into。　The　trader　does。not　focus。on　areas。that　existed　in　the　past　but　is。always。oriented　toward　the　developing　future。　
If　we　apply　these　elements。to　a　chart；　we　see　the　full　envelope　system　together　with　the　support　and　resistance　zones。established　by　the　envelope；　the　dot；　and　the　short…term　trend　lines；　with　these　tools。all　projected　into　the　future；　onto　the　bar　that　has。not　yet　formed。　This。setup　constitutes　the　basic。chart　framework　for　any　single　time　frame　in　Drummond　Geometry。　In　Figure　1。4　we　can　see　this。full　set　of　tools。applied　to　a　chart。　Note　the　resistance　and　support　areas　plotted　on　top　of　each　bar；　along　with　the　envelope　and　the　PLdot。　The　price　bars。are　plotted　using　a　heavyweight　“fat〃　bar　so　that　the　resistance　and　support　tools。can　be　plotted　on　top　of　them　without　obliterating　the　price　bars。themselves。　The　critical　point　is。that　these　elements。are　projected　forward　into　the　future　so　that　the　trader　always　sees。them　ing　up　at　him；　on　the　right…hand　side　of　the　chart　as。time　ticks。forward　and　market　activity　unfolds。　

Now　let's。stop　and　consider　these　few　ponents。of　the　first　major　section　of　Drummond　Geometry。　We　have　the　definition　of　support　and　resistance；　we　have　a　means　of　monitoring　market　energy　（placement　and　movement　within　and　outside　of　the　envelope　system）；　a　means。of　determining　current　market　direction　and　future　shifts。in　that　direction　（dot　direction　and　slope）；　and　a　means。of　determining　where　price　energy　will　terminate　（where　price　is。likely　to　stop　for　a　given　bar）。　All　of　these　elements。are　extremely　valuable　to　the　trader。　But　as。helpful　as。these　tools。are；　by　themselves。they　are　not　enough　for　success。　

Predicting　the　State　of　the　Market　
Now　let's。look。at　the　second　leg　of　this。three…legged　stool。　We　need　to　know　what　the　market　is。doing　now；　and　we　need　to　know　what　we　expect　the　market　to　do　next。　We　need　to　understand　and　predict　the　“state”　of　the　market。　
In　essence；　we　must　establish　the　market's　internal　decision…making　tree　for　possible　future　actions。　It's。as。if　we　could　step　inside　the　mind　of　the　market；　determine　its。present　state　of　mind；　and　then　determine　the　choices。that　are　available　to　it　for　the　immediate　future。　Applying　a　bit　of　logic；　we　can　see　that　there　are　only　a　limited　number　of　actions。that　the　market　can　take。　If　the　market　is。in　a　trend；　for　example；　it　has。a　very　simple　choice　ahead　of　it。　It　can　do　only　one　of　two　things：　continue　that　trend　or　enter　congestion。　If　the　market　is。in　congestion；　it　can　do　only　two　things：　continue　that　congestion　or　start　to　exit　congestion　into　another　trend。　If　you　can　develop　clear　and　unambiguous。definitions。of　trend　and　congestion；　then　determining　the　market's。present　type　of　trading　and　its。next　anticipated　type　of　trading　is。a　matter　of　quick。and　simple　analysis。　Knowing　that　the　next　type　of　trading　will　be　one　of　two　choices。means。that　the　trader　can　focus。attention　on　the　specific。characteristics。of　the　anticipated　next　type　of　trading　and　thus。have　a　clear　understanding　of　whether　the　pattern　is。actually　occurring。　And　if　it　is。not；　then　the　trader　knows。that　the　alternate　choice　is。occurring。　This。makes。monitoring　market　action　much　more　efficient　and　effective　because　the　checkpoints。and　checklists。to　be　watched　are　clear　and　easily　identified。　

Types　of　Trading　
In　Drummond　Geometry　there　are　only　five　types。of　trading：　
。　
Trend　

。　
Congestion　entrance　

。　
Congestion　action　

。　
Congestion　exit　

。　
Trend　reversal　


Each　type　is。clearly　defined：　trend　trading；　for　example；　describes　a　situation　in　any。given　period　when　three　successive　price　bars。close　on　the　same　side　of　the　PLdot。　Thus；　looking　at　the　market　at　any　point；　we　know　whether　that　market　is。in　a　trend　or　not。　Congestion　entrance　trading　is。characterized　by　the　following：　the　market　has。been　in　a　trend　—　that　is；　at　least　the　last　three　bars。have　closed　on　one　side　of　the　PLdot　—　but　the　next　bar　closes　on　the　opposite　side　of　the　PLdot。　In　Figure　1。1；　the　bar　marked　T。（fifth　bar　from　the　left　on　the　chart）　defines。the　start　of　a　trend　because　it　is。the　third　bar　in　a　row　that　closes。above　the　PLdot。　The　market　remains。in　a　trend　until　it　reaches。the　bar　marked　CE；　which　is。the　first　close　on　the　opposite　side　of　the　PLdot；　at　that　point；　the　market　is。in　congestion　entrance　trading。　Similar；　unambiguous。definitionsver　congestion　action；　congestion　exit；　and　trend　reversal　trading。　These　unambiguous。definitions。put　traders。in　the　driver's。seat；　because　they　can　watch　for　exactly　the　action　that　will　be　required　to　change　the　basic。orientation　or　〃state〃　of　market　action。　The　trader　can　monitor　for　precisely　those　elements。that　are　expected　to　occur。　

Multiple　Time　Period　Analysis　
The　first　two　major　elements。of　Drummond　Geometry　—　the　definition　of　future　support　and　resistance　and　the　definition　of　the　anticipated　market　state；　or　next　type　of　trading　—　give　traders。a　leg　up；　because　with　them　they　can　start　to　identify　the　potential　turning　points。at　support　and　resistance　levels。as。the　market　moves。forward。　To　these　major　elements　Drummond　Geometry。adds。the　concepts。of　“dot　push”　and　“dot　refresh”；　which　describe　movement　away　from　the　dot　and　market　movement　returning　to　the　dot；　respectively。　We　can　say　that　dots。push　trends；　support　and　resistance　areas。terminate　trends；　and　the　market　moves。from　one　type　of　trading　to　another　type　of　trading　in　a　regular；　predictable　manner。　
In　Figure　1。4；　we　can　see　how：　the　dots。push　a　strong　trend　upward　and　that　as。the　market　moves。upward；　the　dots。act　as。support　for　the　trend；　the　price　bars。close　over　the　top　of　the　envelope；　and　the　price　bars。can　break。nearby　resistance　and　move　into　the　resistance　areas。further　out。　When　the　trend　stops；　nearby　resistance　bees。strong　and　holds；　and　the　dots。start　to　move　sideways　as。the　market　churns。through　itsngestion　areas；　oscillating　between　the　nearby　support　and　resistance　areas；　which　tend　to　hold　and　not　break。　
These　are　excellent　advances；　but　they　are　still　not　enough　to　provide　a　successful；　reliable；　a