股票期货突破技术分析(英文原版)-第25部分

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s。followed　by　what　was。called　〃the　crash　of　1989；〃　not　to　be　confused　with　the　real　Crash　of　1987。　My　dates。for　November　and　December　also　came　in　very　close。　By　that　time；　I　was。doing　a　few　seminars；　called　〃Safety。in　the　Market。。　After　the　low　of　the　year　came　in　on　April　7；　1989；　it　reinforced　my　forecast　top　of　October　4；　1989　（see　Figure　6。5）。　This。was。presented　to　the　attendees　of　my　seminar　and　was。recorded　on　video。　

My　method　for　predicting　the　tops。and　bottoms。was。simple　and　consistent　with　how　I　made　my　trading　decisions；　as。I’ve　already　outlined。　I　don't　regard　either　Time　by　Degrees　or　price　action　reaction　as。a　stand…alone　indicator。　But　as。can　be　seen　here；　when　they。independently　agree；　there　can　be　a　window　of　opportunity。　
My。decision　was。based　first　on　my　Time　by　Degrees。theory。　October　4；　the　actual　day　of　the　top；　came　in　180　days。from　the　low　of　the　year；　April　7；　1989。　It　was。also　180　weeks。from　the　high　on　April　21；　1986。　That　was。the　first　of　the　double　tops。and　it　came　in　at　1254。5。　It　was。180　months。from　the　major　low　on　September　27；　1974；　which　was。felt　worldwide。　These　time　frames　indicated　a　major　change　in　trend。　
The　process。was。also　based　on　the　theory　that　time　and　price　ranges。repeat。　The　all…time　low　of　our　Australian　Share　Price　Index　contract　came　in　on　March　1；　1983；　at　a　price　of　458　exactly。　The　first　major　top　came　in　1；162　days。later　on　May　6；　1986；　at　a　price　of　1255　exactly。（half　a　point　higher　than　April　21；　1986；　the　other　date　in　the　double　top）。　The　market　at　this。time　was。trading　in　decimal　points。　So　we　had　a　time　frame　of　1162　days。and　a　price　range　of　1255　minus　458；　which　is。797　points。　The　next　major　low；　as。I've　already。mentioned；　occurred　on　July　28；　1986；　at　a　price　of　1058。　So　if　we　are　looking　for　a　future　price　target；　
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War　and　Market　Cycles　
Throughout　this。chapter；　I　have　made　references。to　wars。and　their　relation　to　Gann’s　work。　I　first　became　interested　in　the　war　cycles。after　reading　Gann's。1927　novel　Tunnel　Thai　the　Air；　or　Looking　Back。From　1940；　in　which　he　wrote　that　the　United　States。was。about　to　be　involved　in　an　Armageddon…style　war；　starting　in　April　1930。　He　described　the　Japanese　planes。bombing　the　American　fleet　in　the　Pacific。as。the　start　of　the　war。　More　than　a　decade　before　December　7；　1941；　this。is。how　he　portrayed　the　United　States。being　dragged　into　the　war：　
The　United　States。government　fearing　that　Japan　would　make　the　first　attack。on　the　
Pacificast；　either　around　Los。Angeles。or　San　Francisco；　rushed　the　battle　fleet　to　the　
Pacific。　As。soon　as。the　battleships。cruised　into　the　Pacific；　Japan　attacked　from　the　air　with　the　
noiseless。airplanes。and　began　dropping　deadly　bombs　from　great　heights。　The　antiaircraft　guns。from　the　decks。of　the　battleships。were　powerless。to　reach　the　bombing　planes。at　such　great　heights。　Defeat　was。swift　and　severe　and　only　a　few　of　the　battleships。escaped　plete　destruction　from　the　first　attack。　
His。timing　was。off；　but　I　can　understand　that　because　I　know　how　he　did　his。calculations。　

This。bookpelled　me　in　1988；　sixty。years。later；　to　look。at　the　relationship　between　the　United　States。and　Japan　and　see　if　this。knowledge　could　give　me　an　advantage　in　trading。　In　1986；　Tunnel　Thru　the　Air　led　me　to　natural　time　because　the　book　contained　a　lot　of　trading　examples。　I　found　that　the　United　States。led　Japan　by　an　exact　time　frame。　This。time　frame　varied　with　different　situations。and　industries。　For　example；　in　the　auto　industry；　Japan　trails。the　United　States。by　about　twenty　years。and　Taiwan　follows。Japan。　The　American　stock　market　seemed　to　lead　its。Japanese　counterpart　by　an　approximate　time　frame　of　sixty　years。　My　theory　was。that　after　the　'87　Crash；　when　all　of　the　markets。worldwide　looked　shaky；　Japan　still　had　a　little　more　than　two　years。left　in　the　bull　market。　As。I　was。doing　my。work；　the　Japanese　market　kept　defying　the　trend　and　going　up。　The　Japanese　market　topped　on　December　27；　1989。　Once　that　top　was。in　place；　I　could　expect　the　same　rundown　that　the　United　States。had　experienced　between　1929　and　1932。　The　American　market　had　run　up　95　points。in　ninety…five　days。to　top　out　on　September　3；　1929；　then　it　ran　down　for　a　period　of　1；039　days。to　July　8；　1932。　According　to　what　I　had　learned　from　Gann's。book；　when　the　Japanese　market　topped　on　December　27；　1989；　it　seemed　to　make　sense　that　the　Japanese　market　would　not　bottom　out　until　sometime　around　October　31；　1992。　
I　did　not　trade　either　side　of　my　call　on　the　Nikkei　225　Stock。Average。　But　I　overlaid　the　1929　weekly　chart　of　the　Dow　Jones。Industrial　Average　with　the　1989　chart　of　the　Nikkei；　shown　in　Figure　6。6。　In　real　time；　the　Nikkei　ran　down　for　966　days。to　bottom　out　on　August　19；　1992；　whereas。the　Dow　ran　down　for　1；039　days。in　1932。　The　relevance　of　all　this。bees。apparent　when　you　look　at　the　overlaid　charts。　
The　Theory　in　Practice　
Let's。take　this。theory　a　little　further　and　see　what　economic。advantages。we　can　derive　from　some　of　this。knowledge。　From　1998；　under　doctor’s。orders；　I　needed　to　ration　my　time　and　spend　less。time　working。　I　had　been　publishing　forecasts　since　1988。　Often　this。included　drawing　up　road　maps。for　the　stock。market。　Now　that　I　had　some　time　on　my。hands；　I　decided　to　focus。on　an　aspect　that　had　interested　me—an　analysis。of　cycles。in　the　history　of　the　twentieth　century—using　my　own　methods。and　in　my　own　time。　The　results　are　astounding。　
I　participated　in　a　worldwide　traders。teleconference　on　September　7；　2002；　which　involved　approximately　500　traders。　I　spent　about　an　hour　and　a　half　answering　questions。　Early　in　the　conference；　I　was。asked　by　one　trader　where　I　believed　the　next　pressure　point　would　be　on　the　road　map。　The　first　pressure　point　I　mentioned　was。July　28；　2004。　I　also　said　there　was。a　pressure　point　somewhere　around　August　2…5；　2004。　I　based　this。on　historical　war　dates。and　the　fact　that　2001　was。an　election　year　in　the　United　States。　
In　November　2002　and　again　in　2003；　I　was。guest　speaker　at　the　annual　traders'　conference　run　in　Sydney　by　Hubb　Limited；　a　trading　software　developer　who　was。granted　a　license　to　sell　my　courses。after　I　retired　in　2001。　At　these　seminars；　I　mentioned　the　date　of　May　17；　2004；　as。a　major　pressure　point　on　the　stock。market　and　referred　to　this。and　the　previous。pressure　points。I'd　mentioned　as。“war　dates”。　This。took　place　years。after　I　had　pleted　my　final　Safety　in　the　Market　trading　seminar；　and　the　dates。were　based　on　the　research　I　wasnducting　on　the　history　of　the　twentieth　century。　
The　first　week。of　August　has。often　been　a　critical　day　in　world　history—and　so　it　has　been　a　significant　week。for　the　stock　market。　On　July　31；　1914；　the　London　and　New　York　stock。exchanges。closed　to　avoid　panic。trading。　That　was。almost　the　case　again　in　2001；　when　an　immediate　security　clampdown　occurred　in　New　York。and　Washington　on　August　2；　2004。　The　buildings。affected　were　the　New　York。Stock。Exchange　and　Citigroup　Center　in　New　York。as。well　as。the　World　Bank。and　the　International　Monetary　Fund　in　Washington。　Britain　declared　war　on　Germany　on　Tuesday；　August　4；　1914。　The　United　States　dropped　the　first　atomic。bomb　on　Japan　on　August　6；　1945。　（It　had　been　scheduled　to　be　dropped　on　August　3。）　On　August　1；　1941；　President　Roosevelt　stopped　the　export　of　oil　and　aviation　fuel　from　the　United　States。to　Japan。　Japan　had　the　choice　of　either　changing　its。foreign　policy　or　gaining　access。to　the　East　Indies。oil　by　force。　On　August　2　and　5；　1964；　two　U。S。　destroyers。were　attacked　in　the　Gulf　of　Tonkin；　and　they　in　turn　sank。two　North　Vietnamese　patrol　boats—leading　the　United　States。into　the　Vietnam　War。　
To　fully　illustrate　the　scope　of　the　pattern；　I　would　need　to　trace　early…August　events。through　the　whole　century　and　give　you　the　time　frames；　but　I　think。I've　made　the　point。　Here　is。the　main　thrust：　Britain　entered　World　War　I　
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CHAPTER　7　
Options…Based　Technical。Indicators　for　Stock　Trading　
BERNIE　SCHAEFFER　
Equity　options。have　e　a　long　way　since　they　were　first　listed　on　exchanges。in　1973。　Beyond　the　explosive　growth　in　the　volume　of　options。trading　during　this。period；　which　speaks。for　itself；　options。have　bee　a　risk…management　tool　as。well　as。a　tool　for　speculation　for　a　broad　spectrum　of　market　players；　from　modestly　capitalized　individual　investors。to　hedge　funds。　
In　basic。terms；　the　world　of　listed　optionsnsists。of　call　options。and　put　options。　The　buyer　of　an　equity　call　option　has。the　right　but　not　the　obligation　to　buy　shares。of　a　pany；　referred　to　as。the　underlying　stork；　at　a　specified　price　（called　the　strike　price）　for　a　specific。period　of　time；　at　the　end　of　which　the　option　“expires”。　The　call　option　buyers。are　bullish—they're　hoping　to　profit　from　a　rise　in　the　stock。price　over　the　life　of　the　option。　

Why　Options？　
Why　would　a　bullish　investor　choose　to　pay　for　a　call　option　with　a　limited　life　instead　of　buying　the　underlying　stock？　The　short　answer　is。leverage—the　ability　to　participate　in　the　upside　movement　in　the　underlying　stock。for　a　relatively　small　initial　investment。　The　price　of　a　call　option　is。most　dependent　on　t